At the ET Real Estate Conclave 2026, held on 25th February, the industry confronted a defining question: Is India’s housing cycle peaking, or is it transitioning into a more mature structural phase?
The panel brought together senior leaders from across the development and advisory ecosystem — Murali M, Chairman & Managing Director of Shriram Properties; Pradeep Kumar Aggarwal, Chairman & Whole-Time Director of Signature Global India; Rohit Gera, Managing Director of Gera Developments; Abhishek Kapoor, CEO of My Home Constructions; Gulam Zia, International Partner – Research, Advisory, Infrastructure & Valuation at Knight Frank; Sunil Pareek, Executive Director at Assets; and Ashish Raheja, Managing Director of Raheja Universal.
What followed was not a surface-level discussion about price charts. It was a deeper examination of discipline, affordability, fiscal levers, land strategy, infrastructure sequencing, evolving demand behavior, and the responsibilities that come with a maturing market.
Momentum Must Be Matched by Discipline
Residential prices across major urban markets have appreciated meaningfully over the past few years, supported by steady absorption and improved balance sheets. Yet the tone of the conversation was measured rather than celebratory.
Ashish Raheja situated the present cycle within India’s broader structural trajectory. With infrastructure expansion accelerating and economic fundamentals strengthening, he acknowledged that the housing sector likely retains a multi-year growth runway. However, sustainability depends not only on demand strength, but on internal restraint.
In a candid moment, he observed that parts of the industry must guard against what he described as “greed and vanity” — not as a simplistic critique of pricing, but as a caution against overly optimistic projections. When pricing assumptions, delivery timelines, and cost escalations are modelled under ideal conditions, even small deviations can materially affect margins. In a capital-intensive sector, disciplined underwriting is fundamental.
The implication was clear: momentum without prudence can destabilize even strong cycles.
Affordability: Demand Exists, Conversion Is Strained
Affordability emerged as a structural tension rather than a temporary anomaly. Demand at lower ticket sizes remains visible, yet converting that demand into sustainable supply has become increasingly complex.
Rohit Gera noted that the appetite for smaller, lower-priced homes is evident. The difficulty lies in delivering products at viable price points within today’s land economics and compliance framework.
Ashish Raheja illustrated this challenge with a recent example from the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. A one-bedroom configuration priced below ₹90 lakh, located within approximately fifteen minutes of established nodes such as Chembur, has still required sustained effort to convert interest into transactions. The example reflected not weak demand, but the narrowing affordability bandwidth in urban centers where land and input costs have risen steadily.
Panelists also acknowledged that affordability today is shaped not only by headline prices but by income-to-property price ratios and EMI sensitivity. While recent interest-rate moderation offers support, borrowing cost alone cannot offset structural price escalation in key micro-markets. In select clusters, sharper-than-average appreciation has prompted early caution around localized overheating — not systemic risk, but a reminder that pricing discipline remains essential.
Affordability, therefore, cannot be viewed solely as a policy issue. While fiscal and regulatory measures can provide support, developers must anticipate infrastructure corridors and secure land ahead of full value appreciation. Attempting to create affordability after infrastructure premiums are fully priced in is structurally difficult. Foresight becomes central to sustainable supply.
Land Strategy and Holding Power
A critical thread in the discussion centered on land aggregation philosophy. Gulam Zia raised the question of whether developers today exhibit the same long-horizon conviction that characterized earlier cycles, when land was acquired well before infrastructure maturity.
Ashish Raheja reaffirmed the importance of holding power as a primary driver of long-term value creation. Sustainable returns in real estate often stem from disciplined aggregation and calibrated launch timing rather than immediate monetization. In an environment shaped increasingly by institutional capital and governance standards, structured patience can be more strategic than rapid expansion.
This signals a broader evolution in the sector — from opportunistic acceleration toward measured capital deployment.
Infrastructure as the Multiplier
Infrastructure was widely acknowledged as the market’s central multiplier. Markets that align regulatory clarity, planning frameworks, and connectivity illustrate how coordinated policy can unlock sustained growth.
Murali M underscored that wealth creation in premium segments contributes to broader economic momentum, while infrastructure must simultaneously open new corridors to preserve affordability. These dynamics are interdependent. Price cycles cannot be analyzed independently of infrastructure cycles.
Fiscal Levers and Policy Calibration
Beyond market fundamentals, the panel reflected on fiscal instruments shaping affordability and sentiment.
Discussions included whether rationalizing GST on affordable housing or expanding home-loan interest deduction thresholds could ease pressure on mid-income buyers. While no prescriptive recommendations were advanced, there was broad acknowledgment that calibrated fiscal fine-tuning could support structural demand without distorting pricing discipline.
The conversation also extended to state-level initiatives — including rental-housing incentives, selective tax waivers, and transit-linked FSI policies — aimed at improving supply elasticity. Their effectiveness varies across regions, yet coordinated execution between infrastructure planning and regulatory flexibility was viewed as critical to sustaining balanced growth.
The Next Wave of Demand
The next phase of India’s housing cycle is unlikely to be monolithic. Instead, it may be shaped by multiple parallel drivers.
Premiumization continues in select corridors where aspirational demand and infrastructure converge. At the same time, first-time buyers remain highly sensitive to ticket size and value alignment. Suburban expansion — enabled by connectivity improvements — is gradually redefining urban boundaries.
Simultaneously, a growing segment of mobile urban professionals is embracing flexible renting models. Influenced by career mobility, hybrid work structures, and lifestyle preference, renting is increasingly viewed not merely as a transitional stage but as a strategic choice. This shift is subtly reshaping the ownership-first mindset in certain metropolitan markets.
These evolving behaviors suggest diversification rather than contraction in demand patterns.
Recalibration, Not Exhaustion
Does the current phase represent a peak?
The consensus suggested otherwise. The market does not display the hallmarks of speculative excess typically associated with cycle tops. Inventory levels in several cities remain more controlled than in previous cycles, capital structures are stronger, and buyer scrutiny has intensified.
What appears to be unfolding is recalibration.
Margins are more sensitive. Capital is more structured. Compliance frameworks are tighter. Corporate developers are playing a larger role. Buyers are more analytical. These are characteristics of maturation, not exhaustion.
For Ashish Raheja, the defining imperative of this phase is accountability — to realistic pricing assumptions, to long-term land strategy, and to responsible supply aligned with infrastructure growth.
India’s structural demand story remains intact. The opportunity over the coming decade remains significant. Sustaining it, however, will require the industry to balance ambition with discipline — ensuring that optimism does not drift into excess.
The ET Real Estate Conclave 2026 ultimately served not as a forecast of a peak, but as a moment of collective introspection — a recognition that the durability of India’s housing cycle will depend as much on industry conduct as on macroeconomic strength.
